The recent macroeconomic and market indicators, in the context of their effects on the monetary policy setup, were discussed at the regular meeting of the Operational Monetary Policy Committee held on December 12, 2013.
Press release of the NBRM
The recent macroeconomic and market indicators, in the context of their effects on the monetary policy setup, were discussed at the regular meeting of the Operational Monetary Policy Committee held on December 12, 2013.
The data on the economic activity for the third quarter in the euro area indicate slow recovery. The reduced tensions on the financial markets and the loosening of the fiscal consolidation enabled the euro area to exit the recession, but the insufficient growth of the domestic demand continues to be the main weak point for the euro area progress. The macroeconomic indicators for the U.S.A. still fail to give clear picture of the recovery pace of the U.S. economy neither indicate when the central bank is going to reduce the monthly amount of purchased securities. The liquidity of the banking system in the Republic of Macedonia in November increased under the influence of autonomous factors, and the banks have placed the excess liquid assets in short-term financial instruments. On the domestic markets, the interbank deposits activity intensified, with the securities being traded on the secondary market, as well. The foreign exchange market movements were influenced by the usual seasonal factors. The available high frequency indicators for the third quarter show further boost of the economy, although less intensive in comparison with the second quarter, given possible weak performance in construction and trade. According to the estimations, the economic growth will not be solid enough to cause major imbalances in the economy. The available data on the foreign reserves for the last quarter indicate their quarterly decrease, a movement expected within the balance of payments projections. The indicators for the reserves adequacy remain in the safe havens and indicate level of foreign reserves sufficient to deal with possible unforeseen shocks. According to the preliminary credit flows data, in November the monthly credit growth accelerated, with the lending being directed to both, the corporate and the household sector. As a result, the corporate loans register monthly increase for the first time in four months. These changes are in line with the projections for increase in the credit flows in the last quarter. However, there are still risks to the loans projection related to the bank perceptions, as well as the conservative strategies applied by major banking groups in the Macedonian banking system. In conditions of stable movements, but still present risks related to the external environment, and taking into account the expected effects of the measures previously taken by the National Bank, it was decided to offer CB bills at the level of due amount (Denar 25.500 million), while the key interest rate of the National Bank to be maintained at the current level of 3.25%. The National Bank will continue to closely monitor the future macroeconomic developments and the possible materialization of risks and accordingly, to adjust monetary policy.
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