Skopje, 24th December 2021

This year that passes is a year of gradual recovery after the first shock from the pandemic. Unlike the previous global crisis, which caused long and blunt pain, the corona-crisis caused fast and sharp pain - with initially larger and more widespread effect in terms of the world financial crisis, but with a faster recovery. For 2022, growth of 3.9% is forecasted, whereby the economy would reach the pre-crisis level, but risks still exist - says in an interview with “Capital” the Governor of the National Bank, Anita Angelovska Bezhoska.

“The current performances are mainly in line with the expectations of the National Bank. The recovery dynamics of the economy is solid, and the growth in the first three quarters of 4.6% is very close to our forecasts of 4.2%. Unlike the previous global crisis, which caused long and blunt pain, the corona-crisis caused fast and sharp pain - with initially larger and more widespread effect in terms of the world financial crisis, but with a faster recovery. This is primarily because this crisis did not result from the disturbance of the economic fundamentals, but it spilled over from the crisis in the health system and the uncompromising need for preservation of public health”, says Angelovska Bezhoska in her interview.

The Governor says that the banks were a significant support to the real sector during the corona-crisis, due to the strong capital and liquidity position of the banking system before the beginning of the pandemic, but also the fast and strong response by the National Bank, which from the beginning of the pandemic has taken a series of measures for easing the financial conditions in the domestic economy and increasing the liquidity and flexibility of banks.

For next year, the National Bank forecasts growth of 3.9% of GDP, whereby in 2022 the pre-crisis level of the economy would be reached.

“The assessment for further growth of the economy in 2022 is based on several assumptions, out of which the recovery of the European economy as our major trading partner is key. According to the latest forecasts of the European Central Bank, following the growth in the euro area of about 5.1% this year, a solid growth of 4.2% is forecasted for the next year. This, together with the more favorable price conjuncture in metals, would have a direct positive impact on our export, and indirect on other segments in the economy. Regarding the domestic environment, it is expected that the immunization process will continue, which will  positively affect the confidence and behavior of economic agents and their consumption and investments. Given the high capitalization and liquidity of the banking system, a further solid credit support to the growth is expected”, says Angelovska Bezhoska.

However, as stated by the Governor, there are negative risks for these forecasts. Those include the uncertain epidemiological situation, the growth of energy prices, the standstill in the global value chains, but also the possible faster tightening of the global financial conditions.

Regarding the inflation, the Governor says that taking into account the forecasts of the international financial institutions for stabilization of the prices of primary products next year, it is expected that there will be certain stabilization of the inflation in our country as well. However, the prices on the primary markets are volatile and very uncertain, due to which the National Bank carefully monitors the changes in import prices and the factors that drive them, but also the domestic factors. If necessary, the National Bank is prepared to respond using some of its available monetary instruments.