Skopje, 11 Mart 2023  

“The monetary policy tightening, as a global phenomenon, is necessary in order to reduce the inflation expectations and stabilize the inflation as a precondition for sustainable growth. We are facing the most synchronized cycle of monetary policy tightening by central banks in the past 50 years. The increase in the policy rates may have affect the economic activity in the short term, but it should be taken into account that macroeconomic policies are not a substitute for structural policies, which are key for increasing the growth potential", says the Governor of the National Bank, Anita Angelovska Bezhoska, in an interview for the "Financial Observer" magazine of the Central Bank of Poland.

The Governor emphasized that the strength of the reaction and the type of instruments used by central banks depend on the factors affecting inflation, especially the output gap, the type of monetary instruments and the monetary strategy. Given the geopolitical developments, economic growth would certainly slow down, but the intensity of this deceleration will depend on: the duration of global shocks which is beyond our influence, the sensitivity of the economies to global shocks (we can influence on, but in the medium term), as well as on the coordination and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies. In the longer term, the growth path will primarily result from the structural reforms implementation dynamics.

In the interview, the Governor referred to the risk of globalization slowdown, which until now has played an important role in the growth in the economies, especially smaller ones like ours. At the same time, she emphasized that the available data on global trade and financial flows do not point to major changes so far. Namely, the great decrease in world trade during the pandemic was followed by a recovery process, despite the increasing number of trade barriers. However, the risk of medium-term changes in direction, structure and geographical dimension of globalization should not be underestimated.